Theresa May’s Conservative Party is riding high in the polls a month before voting begins in the snap General Election that she called for June 8.
Some polls have the Tories at almost double the vote share of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, indicating that the most likely outcome of the election would be a landslide victory that would increase her party’s current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.
Indeed, some experts estimate that the Tories will take as many as 56 seats from Labour, leaving them with a 200-seat lead over the official opposition party. This could be aided by UKIP’s apparent collapse in popular support over recent weeks.
Follow how the race is shaping up with The Telegraph’s poll tracker, which looks at national voting intention from individual polls.
What are the betting odds for the UK general election?
Political pollsters have taken a beating recently after failing to predict a Conservative majority in 2015, a Leave vote last summer and a Donald Trump victory in November.
For those who have lost faith in polling, there is another way of predicting electoral outcomes: ask people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities.
Coral’s latest odds for the election have Theresa May as most likely to continue as Prime Minister after the election. The latest odds for the party to emerge with the most seats are:
Conservative – 1/50
Labour – 16/1
Lib Dems – 100/1
Ukip – 500/1
Greens – 500/1
The seat with the narrowest Labour majority is Halifax where the Conservatives finished just 428 votes behind Labour in the 2015 general election. This seat is particularly vulnerable due to the fact that Halifax voted to Leave the EU by 60 per cent.
The Tories will, however, face pressure from enthusiastic EU-backing Lib Dems who will seek to re-gain seats that they lost in the 2015 general election.
Theresa May currently holds Remain-backing Lewes with a majority of 1,083 (2.1 per cent) and Twickenham with a majority of 2,017 (3.3 per cent). Both of these were taken from the Lib Dems by David Cameron in 2015, and Tim Farron’s pro-EU party will be seeking to win them back.
Who is voting for which party?
Class is no longer the dividing line in British politics with the Conservatives attracting considerable support from working class voters according to recent polling.
Some 43 per cent of C2DE voters – which includes skilled and unskilled manual labourers, casual workers and pensioners – said that they intend to vote Tory in the upcoming General Election, rising just three points among ABC1 voters, who include managerial, administrative or professional workers.
The Labour Party has sunk to attracting just 24 per cent of middle class and 26 per cent of working class voters.
If you want to find the new dividing line in British politics, age is the new predictor. Generally, YouGov’s polling has found that the older you get, the more likely you are to vote Conservative.
Labour is 19 points ahead among 18-24 year-olds while the Conservatives are ahead by a huge 49 points among the over 65s.
A word of caution
It’s still very early days in this snap-election race. Given the current verdict from the pollsters and the bookmakers it seems unthinkable that the Conservatives could fail to win on June 8.
However, the race could change dramatically once the party manifestos have been launched and the campaign starts in earnest.
For the last six general elections, the polling average 50 days before the election has always been wrong – although this has always given Labour a more generous vote share.
Our poll tracker takes in national polls from a range of UK pollsters. Their individual polls, while of different sample sizes, take in a representative sample.
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